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What is Well Of Wonders?
Beginning with the US presidential elections in November 2024, when prediction markets catapulted into mainstream culture, their rise has been undeniable. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their valuations balloon to $40 billion and $21 billion, respectively, and the majority of the top US bookmakers have scrambled to expand into the prediction space in various forms, either by building their own exchanges, acquiring existing ones or engaging in market-making.
Commercial sports betting generated just under $17 billion in nationwide revenue in 2025, which is why Davenport asserts that the “stakes of this case are exceptionally high”. Kalshi and Polymarket alone posted more than $45 billion in trading volume, which is similar but not identical to betting revenue, in August. That was a 15% decline from July, although that drop is attributed to the conclusion of the Fifa World Cup tournament that month per Yahoo! Finance.
The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.
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“The regulatory failures are unhelpful but perhaps the sheer number and regularity of them has made them less remarkable, such that they become ‘wallpaper’,” Waugh says.
He argues that some lawyers and licensees believe the Commission’s presentation of cases is detached from the operational reality but feel they have little option other than to accept the “regulator’s truth” when settling.
“The Commission’s approach to reporting may well create the inaccurate impression that the industry is inherently non-compliant,” he adds. A more balanced account might place failures alongside the majority of licensees that pass assessments or lead on customer wellbeing, although Waugh considers such a shift unlikely.
What is Well Of Wonders?
The Brazil betting industry has faced increasing scrutiny of late over claims that families are falling into debt because of gambling.
The president is not seeking to introduce the measures through a full bill, as the legislative process in Congress could reduce their immediate political impact ahead of the elections.
Some factions within the government, especially the Ministry of Finance, are resisting more drastic measures. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for regulating sports betting and online gaming, understands the sector’s importance to the economy. Finance Minister Dario Durigan’s difficulty lies in convincing Lula that a well-regulated activity is important for public finances. Lula has said, in line with critics of the sector, that if it were up to him, he would end betting in Brazil.
