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For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.
Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.
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Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.
Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.
The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.
About Balloon Triple Pop 3D
These professional content creators on Instagram aren’t limited to sports betting. There are niches of creators focused on casino games, like the controversial Fortune Tiger, with a communication strategy similar to that of sports betting.
Another influencer (fictitious name, João) shares live game-style videos on his stories, simulating high-paying gaming sessions. In them, he points out which operator or game “is paying the most”, while in another piece of content, he posts a screenshot of his exclusive Telegram group, where he shares “highest payout” times for betting on specific games.
In a third publication, he “teaches” the gambler to observe patterns in the game interface, such as an animation on the tiger’s face, a specific glow that appears or a sequence of supposed events that indicate that the big win is about to happen.