Gem Splitter

How to play Gem Splitter

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.

How to play Gem Splitter

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

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iGB is proud once again to launch its Most Influential Women initiative, now in its ninth year. Since 2018, we have provided a platform for females in the gaming sector to honour their work and the progress they have made in advancing DEI.

Over the course of the campaign’s lifetime, various sectors and subsectors of the industry have been highlighted and the sheer diversity of talent has shone through, year after year. We have had the pleasure of delving into the careers and aspirations of our previous winners, and learned a lot about the make up of the sector along the way.

From recruitment to regulation, cybersecurity, tribal gaming, affiliates, gambling law, C-suite leaders and everything else in between, the campaign has shown that where roles, companies and backgrounds differ, many of the women we have honoured share a united drive to improve diversity within the sector.